Black Hawk Down 2 - The Hunt for Bin Laden

When do you think the movie'll be released? Some time next year, maybe. Right now, I'll bet there's turmoil in Hollywood, with producers busy looking for scripts, getting casting couches ready, and dealing with the delicate question of who is to play OBL.

Seriously, the whole thing has something of a movie about it. I can almost picture the marines on the raid blaring out the "Apocalypse Now" soundtrack on their way in. But when you look at the facts, or what are being passed out as facts, and the reactions to them, you don't know whether to laugh or cry. Let's have a look at all the players and scenarios, starting with taking the story as we hear it on TV as the gospel truth:

The United States: Had no clue for a decade as to the whereabouts of its Most Wanted man, in spite of possessing the most advanced war and espionage technology in the world. Hell, they've got satellites that can apparently photograph a postage stamp on a pavement. I'm willing to bet they could've taken pictures of every square inch of Pakistan and Afghanistan many times over. Google's done it. Maybe Osama just didn't happen to look up?

Pakistan: Apparently had no clue either. Despite the fact that the man had been living for years in a large compound a stone's throw from their elite military academy. I mean, if someone builds a home eight times larger than the average near a sensitive area, would you not check it out, even discreetly?

If these scenarios are the honest truth, like they're being made out to be, there are some extremely stupid people out there with their fingers on nuclear buttons. Nice.

However, maybe people aren't that stupid. Here's what I think:

Pakistan: Knew all along where OBL was. In fact, they probably built his damn "mansion". So why didn't they let on? Because he was worth more to them alive than dead. As long as he was still alive, the "War on Terror" would continue, and the generals would continue to line their pockets with money and all kinds of war toys. Maybe they've got enough money and toys now, and decided OBL wasn't worth putting up any more. Or maybe they could see the US "endgame" in Afghanistan approaching, and decided to let on his location, for one last, big payout before the Yanks left. So their military radars conveniently failed to work, and nobody went to investigate four helicopters hovering near their military academy, even though one crashed and the rest of the town heard and saw the huge explosions and gunfire (one guy even tweeted the whole thing live).

The United States: Knew where he was, but didn't want to kill him just yet - not before they had a) brought "democracy" to Afghanistan and b) finished testing all of their new weapons systems. But Afghans haven't yet taken to wearing T-shirts and drinking Bud Lite, and the weapons industry bosses need some time out to spend all the money they've made, so it's time to get out of A'stan. But, you know, them Talibs...they've kind of got the upper hand...and we don't want another Vietnam-type thing...so we gotta be able to say "mission accomplished"...bye bye OBL.

Or maybe, as a friend put it, five years of living indoors with three wives...OBL probably called the Marines himself.